Suburban shocks: Assessing locational vulnerability to rising household fuel and mortgage interest costs

Abstract

One of the most discussed economic phenomena since early 2005 has been the marked increase in the global price of oil. The rising global price of oil has been translated into rising domestic fuel costs. Given the heavy dependence of Australian urban transport systems on cheap fuel the rising global oil price raises questions about the impact this phenomenon will have on urban households. The sustained relatively high price of oil has begun to influence other price sectors and the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia has responded by raising interest rates. There has been little research so far that has reported on how the impacts of rising fuel and mortgage interest costs will be distributed across Australian cities and the implications this may hold for urban and transport policy making This study undertakes a locational 'vulnerability assessment for mortgage, petrol and inflation risks and expenses' (VAMPIRE) to assess how potential adverse impacts from rising fuel costs would likely be distributed across Australian cities. The study uses ABS Census data to create a vulnerability index that can identify areas of greatest risk, and conversely, those areas where the impacts of rising fuel costs are likely to be less extensive. The study reflects on the capacity of existing urban structures and transport systems to accommodate behavioural responses to rising fuel costs and changing household financial pressures. The conclusions of the research identify a number of potential policy directions to address oil and mortgage vulnerability with an emphasis on equitable spatial provision of public transport services.