Toward a Macroscopic Model of Road Fatalities in Queensland

Abstract

This paper is a progress report on some explorations with modelling, at a macroscopic level, the determination of road fatalities in Queensland. The emerging results suggest that there has been a gradual, long-run downward trend underlying the number of road fatalities per registered vehicle. Further, the rate of seat belt usage appears to have had a major impact on the incidence of road fatalities. As for the other safety policy measures – such as the random road watch program, the deployment of speed cameras and the lowering of the maximum blood alcohol level to 0.05% – the results obtained to date suggest a significant impact from them as a combined package. However, reliable estimates of the individual effects must await further research. Eventual findings will add to the body of evidence that supports decision-making by policy-makers and advisers.