Toward a temporal model of negotiation linkage dynamics: Singapore - Australia, U.S. - Singapore, and Australia - U.S. bilateral trade negotiations

Abstract

The SingaporeAustralia trade negotiation (SAFTA: 2/2001 10/2002) and the United StatesSingapore trade negotiation (USSFTA: 12/2000 1/2003) occurred concurrently in time. In comparison, the AustraliaUnited States trade negotiation (AUSFTA: 3/2003 2/2004) was conducted consecutively, after these two negotiations. I use the temporal difference among these three treaty negotiations to investigate the role of time in negotiation and the influence that one negotiation can have on another negotiation (past, present and future are treated as independent variables, and negotiation process and outcome are treated as dependent variables in this study). In exploring concurrently linked negotiations (SAFTA and USSFTA) I examine the role of the link-pin party (Singapore), both linked parties (Australia and the U.S.), and the strategies employed by these parties to manage linkage dynamics. In exploring consecutively linked negotiations, I consider how past events influence current negotiations (e.g., influence of USSFTA and SAFTA on AUSFTA) and how perceived future negotiations influence current negotiations (e.g., precedent building). The temporal framework developed through this study serves to enlarge our understanding of linkage behavior, which will assist in the strategic management of negotiation linkage dynamics. This temporal framework may also enhance the current theoretical paradigm of negotiation by providing a foundation that includes the past, present and future. This study concludes by considering directions for future research in managing negotiation linkage dynamics.