Regression forecasting of patient admission data

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Title Regression forecasting of patient admission data
Author Boyle, Justin; Wallis, Marianne; Jessup, Melanie; Crilly, Julia; Lind, James; Miller, Peter; Fitzgerald, Gerard
Publication Title Proceedings of the 30th Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society, EMBS'08 - "Personalized Healthcare through Technology"
Year Published 2008
Place of publication USA
Publisher IEEE
Abstract Forecasting is an important aid in many areas of hospital management, including elective surgery scheduling, bed management, and staff resourcing. This paper describes our work in analyzing patient admission data and forecasting this data using regression techniques. Five years of Emergency Department admissions data were obtained from two hospitals with different demographic techniques. Forecasts made from regression models were compared with observed admission data over a 6-month horizon. The best method was linear regression using 11 dummy variables to model monthly variation (MAPE=1.79%). Similar performance was achieved with a 2-year average, supporting further investigation at finer time scales.
Peer Reviewed Yes
Published Yes
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Copyright Statement Copyright 2008 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works must be obtained from the IEEE.
ISBN 978-1-4244-1814-5
Conference name 30th Annual International IEEE EMBS Conference
Location Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Date From 2008-11-20
Date To 2008-11-25
Date Accessioned 2009-11-26
Language en_AU
Research Centre Menzies Health Institute Qld
Faculty Griffith Health Faculty
Subject Multi-Discipline
Publication Type Conference Publications (Full Written Paper - Refereed)
Publication Type Code e1a

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