Bid-winning potential optimization for concession schemes with imprecise investment parameters

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Title Bid-winning potential optimization for concession schemes with imprecise investment parameters
Author Islam, MD Mainul; Mohamed, Sherif Ali Mohtady
Journal Name Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Year Published 2009
Place of publication United States
Publisher American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Abstract This paper portrays the development of a concession-investment optimization model for optimizing the winning potential of a concession-bid from the prospective promoters' viewpoints by taking into account imprecise investment parameters. A financial performance measure has been developed to quantify bid-winning potential. Fuzzy set theory is embedded into a genetic algorithm to optimize bid-winning prospects of concession schemes under uncertainty. The fuzzy vertex method accomplishes propagation of uncertainty in cash flows arising from imprecision in estimation of investment parameters. Genetic algorithm solves the optimization routine. The developed model yields global near-optimal solution of bid-winning potential with contributing values of concessionary items: concession length, base price, and equity level under uncertain investment environment. A numerical example demonstrates model capabilities. The model results would help promoters devise a profitable, yet competitive, financial proposal.
Peer Reviewed Yes
Published Yes
Alternative URI http://10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000032
Volume 135
Issue Number 8
Page from 690
Page to 700
ISSN 0733-9364
Date Accessioned 2009-11-25
Date Available 2010-06-25T06:41:30Z
Language en_AU
Research Centre Centre for Infrastructure Engineering and Management
Faculty Faculty of Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
Subject PRE2009-Building Construction Management
URI http://hdl.handle.net/10072/29260
Publication Type Journal Articles (Refereed Article)
Publication Type Code c1

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