A Geographically Weighted Regression Method to Spatially Disaggregate Regional Employment Forecasts for South East Queensland

Abstract

In this paper we present a new methodology by which regional employment forecasts can be spatially disaggregated to smaller administrative units. We develop a statistical model for disaggregating spatial data based upon related employment determinants (for example, the proximity of an area to a shopping centre), demonstrating there is a degree of spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity in relationships. Applying an advanced statistical procedure, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), to account for these spatial effects this method utilises the locally fitted relationships to estimate employment numbers at the smaller geography whilst being constrained by the regional forecast. Results demonstrate that our GWR method generates superior estimates over a global regression model for spatially disaggregating regional employment forecasts.