Tourism Under Climate Change: Will Slow Travel Supersede Short Breaks?

Abstract

The effects of the deregulation of airlines markets and the new technologies that have been introduced into air transportation have been heavily studied. Much of this analysis has been on the impacts on the industry and the immediate welfare implications for passengers and, to a lesser extent, cargo consignors. This study looks at the longer-term effects of the modern air transportation system on labor markets and labor migration. The growth of the service sector, the emergence of more flexible manufacturing techniques, the reduction in trade-barriers, and the creation of more sophisticated financial markets have led to greater mobility in production and in capital movement. This has been explored to some extent. Labor is, however, also more mobile - for example, since the admission of Poland to the European Union some 465,000 Polish workers have joined the UK labor market. Air transportation facilitates easier migration, makes short-term, long-distance migration viable, and allows migrants to maintain contact with their home country. Within larger countries, such as the US, there has also been a growth in long distance “week-day” migration as spouses work in different parts of the country to be reunited at weekends. The study makes use of aggregate data to look at trends in international labor movements particularly concerning the European situation, and, to a lesser extent, at recent developments within the US. It is concerned both with what is going on in terms of the use being made of air transportation by migrants and the light that this may shed on migration theory.