The dead end of demand modelling: supplying a futures-based public transport plan

Abstract

This paper discusses the transport planning issues that are exposed when new accessibility tools have been employed, designed to address the challenge of providing accessibility by public transport as a serious alternative to car use. Research from case studies in Perth and Brisbane is reported. The paper discusses the benefits of focussing on metropolitan-wide supply side modelling as opposed to simply applying demand forecasts; the need to, and challenges of, setting benchmarks that define quality public transport and accessibility; the need for iterative review by setting long term visions and back-casting as well as looking forward from current city structures. The analysis has raised some interesting questions. It is evident that the past practice of incremental and ad hoc changes to the public transport network will not meet Australia's transport challenges in a timely fashion. What is needed is a step-change, but this requires both a long term view of future city size and structure (a challenge for land use planners who have thus far not planned in this way) and considerable public funding in the short term (where public transport has traditionally been underfunded relative to private transport). It is questionable whether the required rate of change can be achieved.