Coastal vulnerability to Sea Level Rise: A spatio-temporal decision making tool

Abstract

Due to uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of Sea Level Rise (SLR) impacts, it is difficult to determine whether taking a specific action to prepare for SLR is justified. The dilemmas confronting decision makers are: when, where and how to adapt to SLR. To address these issues, this research introduces a recently developed model linking Geographical Information Systems (GIS) with a System Dynamics (SD) model to present realistic time series scenarios of SLR across coastal communities. The hybrid GIS-SD model provides a multifaceted assessment by going beyond detailing year specific land use impacts through linking these outputs with socio-economic SD modules. As a result, the model provides the potential to address temporal and spatial problems concurrently. The methodology formulated from this assessment process, could potentially be utilised by coastal communities to identify and evaluate effective adaptation alternatives for reducing SLR impacts, and to inform long-term decision making.