Development of a domestic water end use consumption forecasting modelfor South-East Queensland, Australia

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to explore the predominant determinants of shower end use consumption and the overarching approach to building a residential demand forecasting model using aligned socio-demographic and natural science data sets collected from 200 households fitted with smart meters in South-east Queensland, Australia. ANOVA as well as multiple regression analysis statistical techniques were utilised to reveal the determinants (e.g. household makeup, shower fixture efficiency, income, etc.) of household shower consumption. The study provides evidence that both household makeup and shower appliance efficiency are the most significant determinants of shower usage among other factors. The generated multiple regression model shows that these significant determinants can explain 90.2% of the variation in household shower consumption. The model also shows that the number of teenagers in the household is the most important household makeup characteristic in terms of shower consumption. The paper concludes with a discussion on the significant shower end use determinants and how this statistical approach will be followed to predict other residential end uses, and overall household residential consumption. Moreover, the implications of the research on conservation strategies and policy design, is discussed, along with future research directions.