A probabilistic quantitative risk assessment model for fire in road tunnels with parameter uncertainty

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Title A probabilistic quantitative risk assessment model for fire in road tunnels with parameter uncertainty
Author Meng, Qiang; Qu, Xiaobo
Journal Name International Journal of Reliability and Safety
Year Published 2011
Place of publication United Kingdom
Publisher Inderscience Publishers
Abstract Fire in road tunnels can lead to catastrophic consequences in combination with tunnel safety provision failures, thus necessitating a need for a reliable and robust approach to assess tunnel risks caused by fire. In a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model for road tunnels, uncertainty is an unavoidable component because input parameters of the model possess different levels of uncertainties which are inappropriate to be formulated by crisp numbers. In this paper, a Monte Carlo sampling-based QRA model is proposed to address parameter uncertainty of a QRA model. The tunnel risks are assessed in terms of percentile-based societal risk as well as expected number of fatalities (ENF) curve, which would facilitate tunnel managers to make decisions. A case study is carried out to demonstrate the approach.
Peer Reviewed Yes
Published Yes
Alternative URI http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJRS.2011.041181
Copyright Statement Copyright 2011 Inderscience Publishers. This is the author-manuscript version of this paper. Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the journal website for access to the definitive, published version.
Volume 5
Issue Number 3/4
Page from 285
Page to 298
ISSN 1479-3903
Date Accessioned 2012-03-05
Date Available 2012-05-21T22:24:30Z
Language en_US
Research Centre Centre for Infrastructure Engineering and Management; Urban Research Program
Faculty Faculty of Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
Subject Transport Engineering
URI http://hdl.handle.net/10072/44132
Publication Type Journal Articles (Refereed Article)
Publication Type Code c1x

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