Ship collision risk assessment for the Singapore Strait

Abstract

The Singapore Strait is considered as the bottleneck and chokepoint of the shipping routes connecting the Indian and the Pacific Ocean. Therefore, the ship collision risk assessment is of significant importance for ships passing through the narrow, shallow, and busy waterway. In this paper, three ship collision risk indices are initially proposed to quantitatively assess the ship collision risks in the Strait: index of speed dispersion, degree of acceleration and deceleration, and number of fuzzy ship domain overlaps. These three risk indices for the Singapore Strait are estimated by using the real-time ship locations and sailing speeds provide by Lloyd's MIU automatic identification system (AIS). Based on estimation of these three risk indices, it can be concluded that Legs 4W, 5W, 11E, and 12E are the most risky legs in the Strait. Therefore, the ship collision risk reduction solutions should be prioritized being implemented in these four legs. This study also finds that around 25% of the vessels sail with a speed in excess of the speed limit, which results in higher potentials of ship collision. Analysis indicates that the safety level would be significantly improved if all the vessels follow the passage guidelines.