Climatic, high tide and vector variables and the transmission of Ross River virus

Abstract

This report assesses the impact of the variability in environmental and vector factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) in Brisbane, Australia. Poisson time series regression analyses were conducted using monthly data on the counts of RRV cases, climate variables (Southern Oscillation Index and rainfall), high tides and mosquito density for the period of 1998–2001. The results indicate that increases in the high tide (relative risk (RR): 1.65; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20–2.26), rainfall (RR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.21–1.73), mosquito density (RR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09–1.27), the density of Culex annulirostris (RR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.13–1.37) and the density of Ochlerotatus vigilax (RR: 2.39; 95% CI: 2.30–2.48), each at a lag of 1 month, were statistically significantly associated with the rise of monthly RRV incidence. The results of the present study might facilitate the development of early warning systems for reducing the incidence of this wide-spread disease in Australia and other Pacific island nations. (Intern Med J 2005; 35: 677–680)