QRA Model-Based Risk Impact Analysis of Traffic Flow in Urban Road Tunnels

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Title QRA Model-Based Risk Impact Analysis of Traffic Flow in Urban Road Tunnels
Author Meng, Qiang; Qu, Xiaobo; Yong, Kum Thong; Wong, Yoke Heng
Journal Name Risk Analysis
Year Published 2011
Place of publication United States
Publisher Wiley Blackwell
Abstract Road tunnels are vital infrastructures providing underground vehicular passageways for commuters and motorists. Various quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models have recently been developed and employed to evaluate the safety levels of road tunnels in terms of societal risk (as measured by the F/N curve). For a particular road tunnel, traffic volume and proportion of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) are two adjustable parameters that may significantly affect the societal risk, and are thus very useful in implementing risk reduction solutions. To evaluate the impact the two contributing factors have on the risk, this article first presents an approach that employs a QRA model to generate societal risk for a series of possible combinations of the two factors. Some combinations may result in F/N curves that do not fulfill a predetermined safety target. This article thus proposes an “excess risk index” in order to quantify the road tunnel risk magnitudes that do not pass the safety target. The two-factor impact analysis can be illustrated by a contour chart based on the excess risk. Finally, the methodology has been applied to Singapore's KPE road tunnel and the results show that in terms of meeting the test safety target for societal risk, the traffic capacity of the tunnel should be no more than 1,200 vehs/h/lane, with a maximum proportion of 18% HGVs.
Peer Reviewed Yes
Published Yes
Alternative URI http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01624.x
Copyright Statement Copyright 2011 Society for Risk Analysis. This is the author-manuscript version of the paper. Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. The definitive version is available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/
Volume 31
Issue Number 12
Page from 1872
Page to 1882
ISSN 1539-6924
Date Accessioned 2012-03-05
Language en_US
Research Centre Urban Research Program
Faculty Faculty of Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
Subject Transport Engineering
URI http://hdl.handle.net/10072/44487
Publication Type Journal Articles (Refereed Article)
Publication Type Code c1x

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