Changes to flooding potentials in South East Queensland based on GCM outputs and observations
Author(s)
Chen, YR
Yu, B
Nagayanagi, R
Griffith University Author(s)
Year published
2012
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Outputs from General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been used to assess the impacts of climate change on flood control measures. Antecedent moisture conditions of the catchment at the time extreme precipitation events occur have not been adequately taken into account when assessing climate change impact on flooding in South East Queensland (SEQ). Outputs from two GCMs, GFLD CM2.1 and CCAM, and historical rainfall observations were used to examine the likely change to extreme precipitation in conjunction with antecedent moisture conditions. The antecedent precipitation index (API) was used to indicate the moisture conditions ...
View more >Outputs from General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been used to assess the impacts of climate change on flood control measures. Antecedent moisture conditions of the catchment at the time extreme precipitation events occur have not been adequately taken into account when assessing climate change impact on flooding in South East Queensland (SEQ). Outputs from two GCMs, GFLD CM2.1 and CCAM, and historical rainfall observations were used to examine the likely change to extreme precipitation in conjunction with antecedent moisture conditions. The antecedent precipitation index (API) was used to indicate the moisture conditions of the catchment. The AWBM rainfall runoff model was used to simulate soil moisture in SEQ. The simulated soil moisture was compared with the API based on rainfall data. Two contrasting 30-year-periods, 1961-1990 and 2016-2045 were considered for the GCM-simulated rainfall. Analysis of annual maximum precipitation from GFDL CM2.1 and CCAM outputs showed that there was no statistically significant change to extreme precipitation in SEQ for the average recurrence interval of 2-30 years. The antecedent moisture conditions in extreme events predicted by GFDL CM2.1 were wetter than the observations, according to the relationship between the API and the maximum 1-day and 3-day precipitation. The results indicated that the future antecedent moisture conditions could be wetter before extreme events according to CCAM outputs. Further research could target outputs from different GCMs to analyse the changes of flood potentials in SEQ.
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View more >Outputs from General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been used to assess the impacts of climate change on flood control measures. Antecedent moisture conditions of the catchment at the time extreme precipitation events occur have not been adequately taken into account when assessing climate change impact on flooding in South East Queensland (SEQ). Outputs from two GCMs, GFLD CM2.1 and CCAM, and historical rainfall observations were used to examine the likely change to extreme precipitation in conjunction with antecedent moisture conditions. The antecedent precipitation index (API) was used to indicate the moisture conditions of the catchment. The AWBM rainfall runoff model was used to simulate soil moisture in SEQ. The simulated soil moisture was compared with the API based on rainfall data. Two contrasting 30-year-periods, 1961-1990 and 2016-2045 were considered for the GCM-simulated rainfall. Analysis of annual maximum precipitation from GFDL CM2.1 and CCAM outputs showed that there was no statistically significant change to extreme precipitation in SEQ for the average recurrence interval of 2-30 years. The antecedent moisture conditions in extreme events predicted by GFDL CM2.1 were wetter than the observations, according to the relationship between the API and the maximum 1-day and 3-day precipitation. The results indicated that the future antecedent moisture conditions could be wetter before extreme events according to CCAM outputs. Further research could target outputs from different GCMs to analyse the changes of flood potentials in SEQ.
View less >
Conference Title
Proceedings of the 34th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, HWRS 2012
Publisher URI
Copyright Statement
Self-archiving of the author-manuscript version is not yet supported by this conference Please refer to the conference link for access to the definitive, published version or contact the authors for more information
Subject
Environmental Engineering Modelling