Effect of world fertility scenarios on international living standards

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Title Effect of world fertility scenarios on international living standards
Author Guest, Ross; McDonald, Ian M.
Journal Name The Economic Record
Editor Glenn Otto, Paul Miller
Year Published 2004
Place of publication Australia
Publisher Blackwell Publishing Asia
Abstract This paper applies a two good, multi-region Ramsey-Solow model of the world economy to determine the impact that alternative world fertility rates would have on international capital markets and living standards. Notable features of the model include: relative consumption demands and relative employment efficiencies that vary by age, traded and non-traded goods, vintage technology, outward-looking reference consumption, a proportion of non-optimising rule-of-thumb consumers and imperfect capital mobility due to asymmetric information. The model suggests that projected demographic change will imply a flow of international capital from the ageing regions to the younger regions; and that the world interest rate will fall. The lower world interest rate will cause a loss in living standards for ageing regions, the lenders, and a gain for the younger regions, who are borrowers.
Peer Reviewed Yes
Published Yes
Publisher URI http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/
Alternative URI http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/links/doi/10.1111%2Fj.1475-4932.2004.00179.x
Copyright Statement Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing. This is the author-manuscript version of the paper. Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Volume 80
Issue Number S1
Page from 1
Page to 12
ISSN 0013-0249
Date Accessioned 2005-03-29
Language en_AU
Research Centre Griffith Asia Institute
Faculty Griffith Business School
Subject Macroeconomics (incl. Monetary and Fiscal Theory)
URI http://hdl.handle.net/10072/5330
Publication Type Journal Articles (Refereed Article)
Publication Type Code c1

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